Forecasting uncertainty for the industries that underwrite it.

Our geopolitical risk services support political risk underwriters, war insurance brokers, and sovereign credit analysts with data-driven forecasting, conflict modeling, and policy calibration. We deliver clarity in the face of volatility—whether you're writing risk in emerging markets or adjusting credit exposure in fragile states.

Package 1: Country Risk Index & Instability Forecast

Use Case: Ideal for insurance and reinsurance firms needing structured country risk scoring to support political risk underwriting, war exclusions, or credit exposure limits. Used in portfolio modeling and quarterly risk committees.

Deliverables Include:

• Country risk dashboard: Quantitative and narrative scoring across political stability, security environment, state capacity, and regional volatility indicators.
• Instability forecast model: Three-scenario model (baseline, disruption, crisis) based on power dynamics, protest potential, and regional shock absorption capacity.
• 10-factor political risk composite score: Custom weightings for government change, armed conflict, elite fracture, economic policy shock, etc.
• Output-ready visuals: Color-coded scoring bars and map overlays formatted for internal presentations or regulatory appendices.

Turnaround: 5 business days

Package 2: Conflict & Claims Disruption Tracker

Use Case: Best for insurers managing policies in conflict-affected or post-conflict geographies. Useful for anticipating claims patterns, structuring exclusions, and advising on emerging risks during renewal cycles.

Deliverables Include:

• Conflict event timeline: Structured overview of recent armed clashes, protests, and militia activity with geolocation tags and damage implications.
• Claims-risk mapping: Sector-by-sector visual of assets at elevated risk due to violence, looting, or political seizure.
• Disruption scenario brief: Modeling of future flashpoints and event likelihoods, with potential implications for commercial assets, trade, and infrastructure.
• Regulatory flags: Updates on legal shifts affecting indemnity clauses, reinsurance constraints, or force majeure enforcement.

Turnaround: 6–8 business days

Package 3: Risk Outlook Memo for Underwriting

Use Case: Designed for underwriters, syndicates, or reinsurers requiring a standalone geopolitical memo to support pricing, contract clauses, or loss projections in volatile markets.

Deliverables Include:

• Geopolitical summary for underwriters: Condensed country-specific narrative with emphasis on relevance to insurability, asset exposure, and underwriting complexity.
• Risk triggers and pressure points: Breakdown of developments most likely to shift exposure levels, affect solvency models, or activate dispute resolution mechanisms.
• Clause intelligence brief: Legal and political intelligence to inform exclusion wording, retroactive risk, and localized dispute precedent.
• 2-page insurer memo: Editor-ready draft formatted for board inclusion or policy file addendum.

Turnaround: 4–5 business days

Optional Add-ons

• Translation (French/Spanish/Arabic)
• Map overlay file (EPS/PDF)
• Executive summary deck (2–3 slides)
• Follow-up consultation call

Sanctions shift. Ports close. Governments collapse. We help you keep trading.

We support importers, exporters, and logistics providers with tailored geopolitical intelligence, trade exposure audits, and disruption forecasting tools. Our clients include customs attorneys, global sourcing leads, compliance officers, and freight-forwarding firms operating in volatile corridors.

Package 1: Trade Risk Snapshot

Use Case: Quick-turnaround intelligence report for businesses facing uncertainty in a specific country, corridor, or regulatory space.

Deliverables Include:

• Corridor overview: Customs bottlenecks, conflict zones, and institutional capacity
• Trade policy heatmap: Tariff, quota, or licensing changes under review
• Import/export governance flags: Known corruption zones, labor compliance risk
• Disruption triggers: Conditions that could interrupt freight, payments, or permitting
• Summary memo: Visual format with bullet-point insights

Turnaround: 3–4 business days

Package 2: Country Compliance Brief

Use Case: For firms needing deep guidance on compliance and sanctions risks before shipping or sourcing in emerging markets.

Deliverables Include:

• Sanctions risk breakdown: US, EU, UN, and regional sanctions tracking
• Dual-use goods & export control matrix
• Local partner due diligence: Beneficial ownership, political ties, litigation history
• Counterparty screening against watchlists
• Mitigation strategies for flagged exposure

Turnaround: 5 business days

Package 3: Multi-Jurisdiction Risk Report

Use Case: For clients trading across regions who need a multi-country analysis of current and future geopolitical risk to goods flow.

Deliverables Include:

• Comparative threat matrix across 3–5 countries
• Scenario planning for border closures, coup attempts, currency restrictions
• Custom map overlays for route planning and zone avoidance
• Partner exposure audit across all jurisdictions
• Executive summary + raw appendices

Turnaround: 7 business days

Optional Add-ons

• Translation (Spanish, French, Arabic, Mandarin)
• Real-time trade alert feed
• Partner due diligence memo
• Webinar briefing for team

Contextual intelligence for scholarly inquiry, policy modeling, and global simulations.

We work with academic research centers, think tanks, and policy labs to provide deep, data-informed briefings that support foresight exercises, international grant applications, historical analysis, and teaching simulations. Each output is rooted in structured data and narrative clarity.

Package 1: Historical Context & Conflict Deep Dive

Use Case: Ideal for policy white papers, academic publications, or graduate-level teaching modules requiring high-context framing and multi-source synthesis.

Deliverables Include:

• Chronological conflict overview: Timeline tracing the origins, escalation points, and internationalization of the conflict or political transformation. Each milestone includes brief context and relevant citations to academic, press, or diplomatic sources.
• Actor evolution profiles: Compact analytical sketches of key stakeholders—government ministries, militias, political parties, or grassroots movements—emphasizing ideological shifts, leadership turnover, and legitimacy debates.
• Data-backed narrative framing: Integrated analysis drawing from open-source datasets, expert interviews, and structured media scans to explain cause-effect trajectories and recurring patterns in conflict dynamics.
• Academic-style citations: All sources can be cited in APA, MLA, or Chicago Style formats, with footnotes or endnotes included upon request for seamless integration into academic outputs.

Turnaround: 6–8 business days

Package 2: Policy Landscape Briefing

Use Case: Developed for faculty, researchers, or think tank fellows preparing grant proposals, public testimony, or research briefs. This package supports high-level policy awareness and helps surface the implications of pending changes.

Deliverables Include:

• Country or region-level policy digest: Summarized review of relevant laws, national development strategies, and regional policy initiatives affecting your research area, written with clarity and citation for scholarly or policy use.
• Key institutions and influencers map: Stakeholder matrix highlighting major institutions, their roles, historical stances, and notable figures—mapped by influence level, reform alignment, and track record.
• Legislative timeline snapshot: Chronological list of recent bills, parliamentary debates, and executive actions, with tags for sector relevance and implementation status.
• Briefing memo (3–5 pages): Fully formatted, citation-ready summary distilling the entire brief into a cleanly structured memo for submission in policy, grant, or publication contexts.

Turnaround: 5–7 business days

Package 3: Tailored Briefing Memos & Research Notes

Use Case: Best suited for faculty members, research fellows, or policy analysts who need quick-turn, structured research notes to support proposals, speaking engagements, or timely commentaries.

Deliverables Include:

• 2–3 page briefing memo: Concise, topic-specific summary built for fast decision-making or speaking prep—includes geographic scope, trends summary, and immediate relevance note.
• Annotated source list: Short bibliography with brief source descriptions (author, origin, relevance) to help readers assess credibility and applicability.
• Suggested talking points: Polished, bulleted points to support oral delivery in briefings or media appearances—linked directly to the memo’s key takeaways.
• Editable format: Final product delivered in editable formats (.docx and .pdf), pre-formatted for footnotes and with the option to include comment bubbles for shared revision workflows.

Turnaround: 3–5 business days

Optional Add-ons

• Slide deck summary (3 slides)
• Custom Zotero project folder
• Translated content (French/Spanish/Arabic)
• Interactive map embed for web or classroom

Operational insight for firms supporting missions in dynamic or security-sensitive environments.

We support logistics providers, aerospace firms, intelligence contractors, and infrastructure implementers with tailored geopolitical risk analysis. Our work informs technical proposals, supports regulatory compliance, and flags reputational and operational hazards before they affect the field.

Package 1: Country Risk & Operating Outlook

Use Case: Designed for teams responding to RFPs or launching country-specific programs. This package offers a rapid yet robust intelligence briefing to help assess commercial viability, compliance risk, and potential red flags in country.

Deliverables Include:

• Risk tiering dashboard: A visually structured matrix categorizing risk levels across sectors such as logistics, construction, surveillance, cyber, and aviation. Each cell is color-coded (red/yellow/green) and includes a short, evidence-based justification. Factors include political interference, security threats, infrastructure integrity, and procurement transparency. Designed for executive briefing and internal Go/No-Go deliberations.
• Procurement and contracting environment: Describes how government contracts are issued, oversight mechanisms, procurement cycles, and known bottlenecks. Includes corruption perception rankings, history of legal disputes or contract annulments, and common red flags for foreign bidders. Summarizes how accessible, fair, and enforceable public procurement is in practice—not just on paper.
• Security posture and violent actor presence: Provides mapping of known non-state armed groups, recent conflict zones, territorial control, and security force capabilities. Includes frequency of contractor-targeted incidents (e.g. IEDs, kidnappings, convoy ambushes) and identification of risk corridors. Notes seasonal or election-related escalations and overlap with criminal networks.
• Regulatory flags for defense-related exports: Overview of national rules on importing/exporting controlled equipment, dual-use technologies, surveillance software, and weapons systems. Flags countries with recent history of denied licenses, compliance breaches, or U.S./EU scrutiny. Identifies host country entities that complicate coordination, including opaque customs regimes or politically protected firms.

Turnaround: 5–7 business days

Package 2: Influence Networks & Stakeholder Mapping

Use Case: Designed to support onboarding, local partnership screening, or risk reviews. Ideal for pre-positioning ahead of awards or for compliance assessments of country teams, vendors, or politically exposed actors (PEPs).

Deliverables Include:

• Government and military gatekeepers: Identification and mapping of decision-makers and gatekeepers across ministries, procurement units, and military liaison offices. Includes power ranking, prior controversies, and typical access pathways or bottlenecks encountered by international contractors.
• Private-sector power brokers: Profiled list of local firms with disproportionate influence in the bidding or operational environment. Includes ownership structure, political affiliations, known conflicts of interest, and history of legal or reputational red flags.
• Foreign influence ecosystem: Summary of key geopolitical players and donors shaping the regulatory and contracting space—e.g. Chinese SOEs, U.S. agencies, EU funding channels. Includes their affiliated programs, footprint, and preferred local partners.
• Ethics and compliance sensitivity brief: Overview of perceived or real ethical hazards, including nepotism risks, shell intermediaries, or politicized procurement procedures. Provides scenario-based mitigation language and disclaimers to include in documentation if necessary.

Turnaround: 7–9 business days

Package 3: Trend & Threat Forecast Memo

Use Case: Built for program leads and senior strategy teams to anticipate future disruptions and policy shifts. Often used for internal risk committees, investor briefs, or agency coordination before renewals or expansions.

Deliverables Include:

• Quarterly geopolitical forecast: A structured forward-looking analysis covering national and regional elections, sanctions regimes, troop movements, and policy signals. Includes commentary on likely donor reactions and policy shifts that could impact performance metrics or timelines.
• Emerging reputational risk tracker: Real-time flagging of incidents, media coverage, parliamentary debates, and watchdog alerts that could damage a firm’s credibility or standing. Designed to inform PR teams and compliance officers in advance of negative exposure.
• Disruption scenario set: Narrative modeling of three plausible short-term futures (3–6 months) detailing potential flashpoints, contractor restrictions, or legal amendments that could delay or alter project execution. Includes likelihood scoring and early warning indicators.
• Mitigation and comms summary: One-page visual summary designed for leadership briefings or external communication. Includes pre-drafted messaging points, suggested strategic posture, and contingency framing language for donors or oversight bodies.

Turnaround: 10–12 business days

Optional Add-ons

• Briefing decks formatted for federal proposals
• PEP deep-dive dossiers (up to 3 names)
• Live compliance coordination call (30 min)
• Translated output (French/Spanish/Arabic)

On-the-ground clarity for conflict coverage, correspondent safety, and editorial precision.

We support journalists, news bureaus, and investigative media with real-time situational reporting, background sourcing, and field-informed analysis. Our briefings enhance pre-deployment prep, bolster editorial accuracy, and strengthen safety protocols in volatile reporting environments.

Package 1: Field Correspondent Prep Brief

Use Case: Built for editors, producers, or reporters preparing to deploy to high-risk or fast-evolving environments. Useful for war coverage, natural disaster zones, or public unrest hotspots.

Deliverables Include:

• Political and security snapshot: A concise, structured overview of current government control, political factions, military checkpoints, and zones of instability. Includes notes on security force posture, checkpoints, likely protest sites, and levels of civilian risk. Prepared for field navigation and editorial awareness.
• Trusted local sources map: Annotated index of pre-vetted contacts, including local fixers, journalists, translators, civil society figures, and technical experts. Entries may include background notes, previous collaborations, and risk level (if publicly associated with international media).
• Travel and access notes: Key intel on permits, press credentialing, border regulations, air and road travel logistics, and curfew enforcement patterns. Provides granular insight into mobility options and known restrictions affecting foreign correspondents.
• Risk flags and known disinformation: Highlights of prevalent misinformation narratives, politically charged rhetoric, and known propaganda outlets. Flags terms or figures commonly misrepresented, and provides quick rebuttal guidance where appropriate.

Turnaround: 3–4 business days

Package 2: Narrative & Conflict Context Dossier

Use Case: Designed for editorial desks or documentary teams developing long-form investigations or news features. Often supports background writing, visual storytelling framing, or archival verification.

Deliverables Include:

• Conflict timeline and actor mapping: Chronological mapping of major conflict events, shifts in alliances, factional splits, peace agreements, and foreign involvement. Emphasizes trends useful for long-form analysis or visual structuring of timelines in reporting.
• Verified primary source references: Curated set of legally and journalistically verifiable documents—laws, treaties, leaked memos, NGO reports, UN resolutions—complete with hyperlinks or document archive IDs for transparent sourcing and citation.
• Framing memo for narrative tone: Editorial framing memo that identifies dominant regional and international narratives. Flags politically sensitive terminology, regional taboos, and recommended language for conflict-sensitive coverage. Supports consistent tone for reporters and editors alike.
• Public sentiment signals: Compiled from polling data, online discourse, protest signage, and press editorials. Provides indicators of public opinion direction and intensity, with warning for divergence between elite media and grassroots sentiment.

Turnaround: 5–7 business days

Package 3: Source Vetting & Background Validation

Use Case: Ideal for reporters and editorial teams needing to validate sources, claims, or tip-offs before publication. This package is designed to mitigate reputational and legal risk by confirming identities, affiliations, or incident plausibility using open-source intelligence and document tracing.

Deliverables Include:

• Source identity verification: Comprehensive review of name, digital footprint, online presence, media mentions, and publicly available documents. Includes identity cross-checking through corporate, NGO, or registry databases and alert flags for alias use or impersonation risks.
• Quote and claim confirmation: Evaluation of submitted statements against publicly available records, prior publications, or official transcripts. Designed to identify misattributions, time/date inconsistencies, or factual manipulation before content goes live.
• Affiliation risk profile: Research-based assessment of organizational ties, donor or lobbying connections, political sensitivities, or past reputational issues that could affect the credibility or neutrality of a quoted individual or group.
• Final validation memo: Structured 2-page document with fact-check results, credibility rating, and linked evidence. Includes a red/yellow/green signal summary and concise notes for editorial or legal counsel review.

Turnaround: 3 business days

Optional Add-ons

• Translation of reports (French/Spanish/Arabic)
• Verification of user-submitted photo/video material
• Secure field contact directory (5–7 names)
• Slide summary for editorial review (2–3 slides)

Timely situational reporting for missions navigating fluid political terrain and public-facing responsibility.

We support diplomatic missions, embassies, and consular outposts with tailored geopolitical briefings focused on stability analysis, unrest indicators, and actionable foresight. Whether you are drafting travel advisories, preparing a diplomatic cable, or setting policy priorities, our reporting translates complexity into clarity—frequently in local language, regionally informed formats.

Package 1: Rapid Situation Brief

Use Case:
Designed for short-fuse situational awareness during crises, elections, or protest waves. Often used to inform internal briefings, statements to nationals, or coordination with allied missions. Prioritized when the mission needs to respond within hours—not days.

Deliverables Include:

• 24–48 hour country snapshot: Concise, high-relevance update covering the latest political alignments, government declarations, demonstrations, security incidents, and geopolitical ripple effects. Includes actionable bullet points for rapid policy or communication response.
• Key actor update: Timely rundown of new appointments, resignations, coalition shifts, civil society leadership changes, or rebel activity—all framed in terms of embassy relevance (e.g., visa processing, protest facilitation, bilateral negotiations).
• Situation-specific alert summary: Digest of local advisories, security guidance, restricted zones, checkpoint activity, embassy hours/closures, and local press narratives. Includes analysis of social media sentiment and possible flashpoints of unrest or misinformation.
• Translation available: Final brief optionally delivered in French, Spanish, or Arabic for sharing with partner embassies, host government ministries, or international coordination groups. Local-language clarity ensures speed in dissemination.

Turnaround:
24–48 hours

Package 2: Regional Stability Watch

Use Case:
Designed for diplomatic planning and policy coordination across neighboring posts or multilateral units. Often supports scenario-building exercises, threat mapping for foreign nationals, or alliance coordination. Invaluable for understanding regional momentum, identifying pivot points, and planning resource reallocation.

Deliverables Include:

• Multi-country stability matrix: Structured comparison of governance effectiveness, civil unrest trends, institutional resilience, and continuity of government by country. Includes red/yellow/green status coding and short narrative rationale per state.
• Upcoming political flashpoints: Chronologically organized index of elections, referenda, judicial rulings, protests, and national holidays with forecasted instability implications. Useful for staffing rotation planning and diplomatic travel restrictions.
• Cross-post stakeholder brief: Intelligence on shared interlocutors across missions—ministries, donors, opposition leaders, or regional influencers. Includes alignment/conflict summaries and guidance for coordinated messaging or contact sequencing.
• Media and disinformation environment: Landscape summary of credible vs. fringe outlets, trending disinformation narratives, and embassy mentions or misinformation. Includes source ratings and risks to public perception or diplomatic engagement.

Turnaround:
5 business days

Optional Add-ons

• Translated version (French/Spanish/Arabic)
• Ambassador prep memo or talking points draft
• Emergency call sheet of in-country contacts
• One-slide summary graphic for screen display

Geopolitical intelligence for organizations operating across fragile states and conflict zones.

We support international NGOs, multilateral partners, and development contractors by providing context-rich geopolitical briefs. Whether you're responding to an RFP, navigating civil-military coordination, or preparing for rapid deployment, we equip you with clarity, risk foresight, and stakeholder maps that make field operations safer and more effective.

Package 1: Rapid Risk Readiness Brief
Use Case: Designed for proposal teams, technical leads, or new field deployment needing immediate situational awareness.

• Country risk overview tailored to your operating sector and donor priority.
• Recent shifts in power, protests, and law enforcement tactics flagged for program impact.
• Mapping of active players — from military factions to civil society groups — and how they influence access or visibility.
• Logistics notes, checkpoint conditions, and bureaucratic red tape you’ll likely face upon arrival.

Turnaround:
3–5 business days

Package 2: Stakeholder Influence Matrix
Use Case: Ideal for program leads conducting pre-positioning, partnership outreach, or internal donor vetting.

• Stakeholder map across ministries, donors, INGOs, and local NGOs — categorized by alignment, access influence, and reform credibility.
• Political and operational risk profile of each entity with emphasis on U.S. and European donor concerns.
• History of corruption or foreign scrutiny flagged in dossier format for internal risk teams.
• Engagement notes for each actor — how they collaborate, obstruct, or elevate programming.

Turnaround:
6–7 business days

Package 3: Foresight & Fragility Forecast
Use Case: Developed for regional strategy teams, M&E officers, and policy advisors preparing for multi-year portfolio planning.

• Conflict and fragility forecast for the region including anticipated regime changes, donor exits, and sanction risks.
• Institutional breakdown signals, media environment trajectory, and forecasted foreign influence dynamics.
• Early warning system design — including indicators, thresholds, and field-data recommendations.
• Strategic options matrix with scenario responses for donor reporting or HQ strategy decks.

Turnaround:
7–9 business days

Optional Add-ons

• Donor-aligned slide decks
• Translation (French/Spanish/Arabic)
• In-person or virtual briefing to field staff (1 hour)
• Editable risk dashboard (Excel)